The Effect of Profitability, Leverage, and Company Size on Profit Management in Non-Cyclical Consumer Companies on the Indonesia Stock Exchange for the 2020–2024 Period

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to test and prove empirically the influence of profitability, leverage, and company size on profit management. Based on agency theory, positive accounting theory, and signal theory, this study hypothesizes that profitability and leverage have a positive effect, while company size has a negative effect on profit management. The design of this study is causal-comparative using secondary data from the audited annual financial statements. Through purposive sampling techniques, a sample of 38 consumer non-cyclicals listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) was selected, resulting in 185 panel data observations over a five-year period from 2020 to 2024. Profit management as a dependent variable is projected through discretionary accrual using the Modified Jones Model on a cross-sectional basis. Data analysis was processed using multiple linear regression with robustness testing using Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Standard Errors (HC3) to correct for variance bias. The results of the study show that the entire hypothesis is rejected; Profitability, leverage, and company size have no significant effect on profit management either partially or simultaneously. The model yields a negative Adjusted R-square value of -0.010, confirming that the variation in profit management is driven by external factors outside the model. The implications of these findings suggest that conventional financial ratios lose their predictive power during periods of macroeconomic transition. In practical terms, investors are advised not to rely solely on linear financial ratios to assess the quality of profits, while regulators can evaluate the effectiveness of credit restructuring stimulus in mitigating the default pressures that trigger accounting cosmetics.