Capital Flow, and Exchange Rate on the Indonesia Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG) with Profitability as a Moderating Variable
Keywords:
BI Rate, capital flow, exchange rate, Jakarta Composite Index, profitabilityAbstract
Purpose: This study aims to examine the effect of inflation, BI Rate, capital flow, and exchange rate on the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI), as well as to analyze the moderating role of profitability (ROA) in these relationships.
Methods: This study employed a quantitative explanatory approach using secondary time-series data on the Indonesian capital market. The independent variables consisted of inflation, BI Rate, capital flow, and exchange rate, while the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) served as the dependent variable. Profitability, measured by Return on Assets (ROA), was used as the moderating variable. The data were analyzed using Moderated Regression Analysis (MRA) to examine both direct and interaction effects.
Results: The findings reveal that inflation does not significantly affect the JCI, whereas the BI Rate, capital flow, and exchange rate have significant effects on JCI movements. Furthermore, profitability significantly moderates the relationships between the BI Rate, capital flow, and exchange rate with the JCI, indicating that companies with stronger profitability are more resilient to macroeconomic changes. However, profitability does not moderate the relationship between inflation and the JCI.
Implications: These findings provide insights for investors and policymakers by emphasizing the importance of considering both macroeconomic conditions and corporate profitability in investment decisions and policy formulation. Future studies are recommended to incorporate additional macroeconomic indicators and extend the observation period to obtain more comprehensive evidence.
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