The Islamic Economic Law Analysis of the Rise in Staple Food Prices in the Gaza Strip during the October 2023–2025 Conflict

Abstract

Since the outbreak of war on 7 October 2023, the Gaza Strip has experienced severe disruptions to trade and supply, accompanied by substantial increases in the prices of basic necessities. The wheat flour price index in Gaza rose by 197% between September 2023 and July 2024, reflecting price pressure on this commodity rather than on all basic necessities. This study examines factors associated with rising prices in Gaza from 7 October 2023 to the end of 2025, using pre-conflict data for comparison, and analyzes the findings from the perspective of Islamic Economic Law. It employs a qualitative juridical-normative approach based on library research and documentary analysis of institutional reports, statistical data, academic literature, policy documents, and Islamic legal sources. The collected data are analyzed descriptively and qualitatively, while the normative analysis draws on relevant Islamic legal evidence and fiqh literature concerning ihtikar (hoarding), justice, prevention of harm, and tas‘ir (price regulation). The findings identify three interrelated factors associated with price increases: blockade and crossing restrictions, damage to infrastructure and production facilities, and imbalances between supply and demand amid declining purchasing power. The analysis indicates that price increases resulting from external supply disruptions and actual scarcity cannot automatically be classified as ihtikar, which requires evidence of deliberate withholding of goods needed by the public and resulting harm. Although restrictions on trade access may concentrate procurement among a limited number of traders, this study does not establish that deliberate hoarding occurred. Tas‘ir is therefore assessed as a conditional instrument that requires consideration of market conditions, justice, public welfare, and implementation capacity. Where price increases primarily reflect supply disruptions, restoring access and distribution and monitoring trading practices may be more appropriate than imposing general price controls. This study contributes an analytical framework for distinguishing external supply shocks from potential ihtikar and for assessing the conditions under which tas‘ir may be justified.